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As it happened: Brazilian Grand Prix Weather
By Emlyn Hughes
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Emlyn Hughes and Geoff Creighton are autosport.com's live commentary team. The dynamic duo have developed an inimitable style and a reputation for fast, accurate and insightful commentary. With unrivaled access to events unfolding at the circuit, they bring you the very latest, as it happens.
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The exciting 2.677 mile circuit will host its third championship decider in as many years, as Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa take their year-long battle down to the wire on this challenging, anti-clockwise course.
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Weather has played a large part in shaping the season, with temperature-sensitive tyres reacting in different ways under various heat conditions, as well as rain-affected events in Monaco, Britain, Belgium and Italy.
Interlagos too could become another showery affair, with rain expected on Friday, and a slight chance of showers moving in on Saturday and Sunday.
There is widespread agreement that Friday will be wet with frequent showers, but quite how much rain there will be depends on who you believe. Weather-forecast.com are one of the most reliable among the mainstream weather sources, suggesting eight millimetres of rainfall on Friday - most of it falling in the afternoon. Local sources such as Climatempo go a bit further on the prospect of rain, forecasting 17 millimetres of precipitation.
Saturday and Sunday should see less in the way of showers, with mainly dry conditions and a light sprinkling from time to time. The fine detail for the weekend is not yet known, and will become more apparent as we move towards qualifying and of course the race itself.
Another aspect of the weather that could be critical to the outcome of the world championship is temperature, which is expected to be on the cool side during the event. Friday will see the mercury peak at 22 degrees Celsius, with the top temperature falling to 19 degrees on Saturday, rising slightly to 20 degrees on the all-important Sunday.
With both world titles still up for grabs, and forecasts going for a showery trend, autosport.com Live will continue to monitor the weather over the coming days, and publish daily updates this week as we build towards the Brazilian Grand Prix.
The climate and local weather is expected to be in its usual volatile state, with clouds building from the west during the mornings, with showers and some afternoon downpours possible. The predictions are moving around very quickly at present, with model projections often producing slightly different answers with each passing run of new data.
24 hours on from the initial forecasts on Monday, the news is that Friday is expected to begin largely dry, with rain arriving by afternoon, and continuing through the evening. Temperature predictions for the weekend are now slightly higher than anticipated, with a maximum of 20 degrees Celsius on the first day.
Saturday continues to be the best day weatherwise, with cloudy conditions but staying largely dry. There is a slight risk of a light sprinkling during the course of the Formula One running, but nothing to cause any concern at this stage, with the gauge again peaking at 20 degrees.
The predictions for Sunday have changed, taking a noticeable swing towards wet conditions. Almost all sources are now agreed that the championship decider will be wet. Showers and longer spells of rain are set to move in early, and remain in the vicinity through much of the day. Weather-forecast.com show the current breakdown of the anticipated rain, and Climatempo also back this rainfall from a local perspective.
It should be mentioned that the two forecasts linked show the situation for the city of Sao Paulo. Our own projections for the circuit itself on Sunday predict 14 millimetres of rainfall between 03:00 and 15:00 on Sunday.
The temperature on raceday is also set to rise, with 24 degrees Celsius expected at Interlagos.
As we said, the forecasts are moving around at the moment, and further changes are likely as the models and resultant mainstream forecasts react to the latest model data. Tomorrow we will take another look at the situation, but the summary for today is that Sunday could be the one to watch.
During the early part of this week, the weather data models and predictions have thrown up a stream of different weather scenarios for the race weekend - all variations of a mainly wet theme.
Finally, just 48 hours before the event begins, the forecasts are beginning to settle down with minimal change since Tuesday.
On Friday some overnight showers will clear away, leaving the Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace mainly dry through the morning. Further showers are expected in the afternoon, continuing on into the evening. The air temperature will rise to 21 degrees Celsius in the afternoon.
Saturday should be mainly dry, with a small chance of some sprinkles. The period when the Formula One cars are out on the circuit is expected to be the driest spell of weather throughout the event, with the temperature continuing to be 21 degrees.
Overnight, into Sunday, the shower potential returns once again and showers are expected during Sunday morning and also crucially in the afternoon. The shower risk increases as the afternoon develops - a rain-affected Grand Prix at this stage looks likely. The air temperature will increase slightly to 22 degrees on raceday.
As always, the devil is in the detail, and tomorrow we will look again at the weather situation for the weekend, and naturally provide a detailed forecast ahead of the Friday running at Interlagos.
The 2.677 mile Jose Carlos Pace autodrome is ready to host the final act, with preparations having taken place around the circuit in the last fortnight. Lewis Hamilton's race car arrived at the track as early as last Thursday - the McLaren team giving themselves as much preparation time as possible to ensure everything for the weekend is in place. The usual round of line painting has occurred on the track, along with the erecting of the starting lights gantry.
One important addition to the race weekend will be the return of the 'digi-flag' warning lights system - as seen in Singapore earlier this year. Four of the light units have been sited around the circuit. Allied to the standard system of flags from the marshals' posts, the drivers will have plenty of on-track information at their disposal throughout the event. The lights were functioning well as they were tested during the traditional FIA track test on Thursday afternoon, as the safety and medical cars lapped the circuit.
The entire field of drivers turned out for a photo opportunity in the pit lane as David Coulthard's special Red Bull livery was revealed:
The first heavy rain of the week arrived on Wednesday evening, soaking the circuit, however by this morning most of the rain had cleared away and, as the drivers arrived for their round of press conferences and media briefings, the mainly cloudy skies were punctuated by some brief sunny periods. As Thursday continued, the day turned much more overcast.
An area of low pressure is set to dominate the event between Friday and Sunday, bringing cool temperatures into the area. Towards race day, a weak cold front will increase the chances of a wet final race of the 2008 season. Currently, low pressure is slowly moving north east, affecting northern Argentina and southern areas of Brazil.
On Friday the low will remain roughly where it is now, with showers on its outer edges. Scattered showers and cloudy skies are expected over the circuit throughout the first practice day. These showers will be light in nature. The maximum temperature will struggle to reach 20 degrees Celsius thanks to the large swirl of cool air that will be a factor of the weekend.
For Saturday, the low continues to slowly move north east, with the centre of pressure located very close to Sao Paulo. This will bring a slightly better day in terms of weather, with a low risk of a shower and even some sunny intervals during the afternoon for qualifying. Despite the prospect of seeing some sunshine, the air temperature is not expected to rise above 20 degrees.
Late on Saturday evening, the cold front, on the trailing edge of the low pressure system, will have moved in over the the Sao Paulo area.
The main weather news today is that a significant amount of rainfall is now expected throughout Sunday, beginning from dawn and lasting until after the Grand Prix has concluded. The maximum air temperature will rise slightly with the heavy blanket of cloud cover, up to 23 degrees Celsius.
Tomorrow, the talking will finally turn to the action on the track. We will be live every step of the way with full coverage of the Brazilian Grand Prix weekend. Our Friday coverage here on autosport.com Live begins at 11:30 GMT. Please join us then.
The weather story has been something of a moving target all week, with forecasts moving around with regard to rainfall totals - especially for Sunday.
The forecast for the next two days can be explained with the aid of the South American synoptic chart from Brazil's centre of weather and climate studies.
Following the images through from one to nine, the map shows the general synopsis over South America over the last three days - i.e. the movement of weather systems and low / high pressure areas.
Over the last few days, a low pressure system has moved in over southern Brazil, coming originally from Argentina. The areas of low pressure are denoted by the letter 'B' on the chart, with 'A' showing high pressure. Today Interlagos was affected by the passing low, with cool temperatures and some light rain from the occluded front that you see crossing over Sao Paulo.
Further to the south, in Argentina and Chile, is where all the weather is going to come from. Looking at frames seven, eight and nine, you will notice that an area of high pressure is building and moving north east towards Sao Paulo. Even further to the south, there are two parallel lines of cold fronts - these are the fronts bringing the rain that was anticipated for Sunday.
However, the story is changing at the moment. The latest weather model forecasts for the circuit indicate that the rain on Sunday is being pushed back, later and later in the day, and the expected volume of rain has reduced. The high pressure area may slow down the swift northward progression of the cold fronts. This is obviously critical to the race, and the forecasts that we have seen all week about rain on Sunday.
In summary, Saturday will be mainly dry with little or no rain, thanks to the arrival of high pressure bringing more settled weather. Overhead it will be partially cloudy and some sunny spells are likely to develop. The maximum air temperature will be 21 degrees Celsius.
The risk of rain is beginning to recede for Sunday as the high pressure block develops. Meteo France and the Formula One teams are already aware of this change in events and are watching the situation closely.
Nico Rosberg was asked after practice about his chances for the weekend and said: "If it rains I think we have a better chance. Our car is normally pretty good in the rain but now the forecast is less and less rain, so that's not great for us, but we will see."
The mainstream weather forecasts may tone down their expectations of rain in the coming hours, as they react to the recent climatic changes. The situation is delicately poised, with that area of high pressure now key to the outcome of the race - and possibly the world championship. If the active cold fronts push the high away to the north, allowing them to sweep through, Sunday is likely to be wet. However, if the high pressure holds firm over the next 24 hours, the rain will continue to be pegged back, arriving later, once the championship battle has been concluded.
Join us tomorrow from 12:30 GMT as the Saturday action unfolds at the Brazilian Grand Prix.
Weather-wise the focus is now firmly on the movement of rain showers, and whether they will hit the circuit tomorrow.
We mentioned early this morning, during the final practice coverage, that there have been further developments in the weather forecast overnight. The picture has continued to evolve throughout the day, and the latest forecast model data for the circuit, published as qualifying was in progress, shows that the high pressure area, detailed yesterday, will slide east into the Atlantic ocean, allowing the progression of rain showers towards the circuit.
Looking at the South American synoptic chart and following the most recent images, you can see the circular area of high pressure straddling the Brazilian coastline. This is expected to continue in a north east direction out into the ocean. To the south west of Sao Paulo, you will notice a solid yellow line (there are two more of them further south into Argentina to give you an idea of what they look like). These are trough lines, and are shown this way on weather maps to give forecasters an idea of where heavier rain areas are.
Tonight, this area of rain will move very slowly to the north east. The map you see below is the rainfall projection for tomorrow between 12:00 and 18:00 GMT (the Grand Prix start is at 17:00 GMT).
Tomorrow, rain is expected to arrive early in the morning in Sao Paulo, shortly after dawn. The showers will be light at first, before heavier rain moves in as the day progresses. The hours between 13:00 and 17:00 GMT are set to see the heaviest rainfall during the day, so the worst of the wet weather should be just beginning to move away as the race start occurs. Light rain is then expected at times throughout the race. In total, around 17 millimetres of rain is anticipated between dawn and the end of the race.
The temperature will be very similar to today's mark, at 22 degrees Celsius.
The forecast of rain will add to an explosive atmosphere tomorrow, with the partisan crowd creating a lot of enthusiastic noise and, of course, it adds yet more the pressure to the title battle.
The forecast relies on a complex sequence of atmospheric events and the picture will become clearer in the morning when the rain bands can be tracked on radar. Shortly before our build up to the race, we will publish a further update on the status of the predicted showers, and the latest prospects for the race.
Join us tomorrow from 13:00 GMT on autosport.com Live as we build up towards the Brazilian Grand Prix at Interlagos.
Mainly cloudy conditions with some sunny spells have greeted the teams and drivers arriving at the Interlagos circuit early this morning, but to the south and west, the large swathes of cloud cover and rain are slowly moving towards the circuit.
The latest satellite sequence provided by INMET of Brazil (click 'Animacao' to animate) shows two large areas of cloud bringing the rain that we spoke about at length last night. The first area to the south of Sao Paulo is extremely slow moving, but is gradually working its way northward - towards Interlagos.
To the north west, another area of cloud, also bringing rain, is moving in an easterly direction, again towards the circuit.
This regional radar image vividly demonstrates the rain moving in the direction of Sao Paulo.
The weather is closing in slightly slower than anticipated, but almost every weather source on the planet now predicts rain later as we move towards the start of this vital race.
Please join us in just under an hour as we begin our coverage of showdown at Interlagos.